But the overall seat projection from Kellner puts us in rather different waters than other projections. The Guardian’s projection, for example, has pointed almost constantly to a Labour minority government with SNP support.
However, Kellner’s projection opens up a new can of worms.
He predicts 283 for the Tories, 2 for UKIP. Add in 8 (or will it be 9?) for the DUP and you have a Tory bloc of 293 which could just about survive a vote of confidence if the Lib Dems joined in to make it 325. That’s a big “if”. Gordon Bennett. I hope not.
Meanwhile, on what I would call the “anti-Tory” side, we have 261 Labour, 50 SNP and 7 SDLP, PC and Green, making a total of 318, well short of the 323 needed to survive a confidence vote, unless the Lib Dems join in, making it 350.
But, of course, we have the usual muddle about coalitions v C&S v vote by vote v minority and the “over my dead body will I deal with them” factors and Queens Speech v confidence vote etc etc
It all points to an extremely muddled picture after May 9th.
But I think it will be a small miracle if Cameron and the Tories survive in Number Ten and I hope to God we don’t help them to do so. I don’t think we will – I just don’t see a policy consensus with us which the Tory right would support. And it’s not an emergency this time.
I’m off to deliver leaflets in a target constituency.
Apologies for any maths errors above. It’s early on a Sunday morning. But the fact that we are having to check the minutiae of Northern Ireland seat numbers underlines how close this is.