Peter Kellner's latest projection gives hope to the Lib Dems but points to the squeakiest of squeaky bum times

In the Sunday Times (£ – Phwah!), Peter Kellner predicts 32 seats for the Lib Dems, which is in line with Stephen Tall’s long-standing projection.

But the overall seat projection from Kellner puts us in rather different waters than other projections. The Guardian’s projection, for example, has pointed almost constantly to a Labour minority government with SNP support.

However, Kellner’s projection opens up a new can of worms.

He predicts 283 for the Tories, 2 for UKIP. Add in 8 (or will it be 9?) for the DUP and you have a Tory bloc of 293 which could just about survive a vote of confidence if the Lib Dems joined in to make it 325. That’s a big “if”. Gordon Bennett. I hope not.

Meanwhile, on what I would call the “anti-Tory” side, we have 261 Labour, 50 SNP and 7 SDLP, PC and Green, making a total of 318, well short of the 323 needed to survive a confidence vote, unless the Lib Dems join in, making it 350.

But, of course, we have the usual muddle about coalitions v C&S v vote by vote v minority and the “over my dead body will I deal with them” factors and Queens Speech v confidence vote etc etc

It all points to an extremely muddled picture after May 9th.

But I think it will be a small miracle if Cameron and the Tories survive in Number Ten and I hope to God we don’t help them to do so. I don’t think we will – I just don’t see a policy consensus with us which the Tory right would support. And it’s not an emergency this time.

I’m off to deliver leaflets in a target constituency.

Apologies for any maths errors above. It’s early on a Sunday morning. But the fact that we are having to check the minutiae of Northern Ireland seat numbers underlines how close this is.

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One thought on “Peter Kellner's latest projection gives hope to the Lib Dems but points to the squeakiest of squeaky bum times

  1. I think a Tory block of 290+ might just do the Canadian Tory thing of daring anyone to tempt another election and to do that when it suits them most.

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