Peter Kellner's latest projection gives hope to the Lib Dems but points to the squeakiest of squeaky bum times

In the Sunday Times (£ – Phwah!), Peter Kellner predicts 32 seats for the Lib Dems, which is in line with Stephen Tall’s long-standing projection.

But the overall seat projection from Kellner puts us in rather different waters than other projections. The Guardian’s projection, for example, has pointed almost constantly to a Labour minority government with SNP support.

However, Kellner’s projection opens up a new can of worms.

He predicts 283 for the Tories, 2 for UKIP. Add in 8 (or will it be 9?) for the DUP and you have a Tory bloc of 293 which could just about survive a vote of confidence if the Lib Dems joined in to make it 325. That’s a big “if”. Gordon Bennett. I hope not.

Meanwhile, on what I would call the “anti-Tory” side, we have 261 Labour, 50 SNP and 7 SDLP, PC and Green, making a total of 318, well short of the 323 needed to survive a confidence vote, unless the Lib Dems join in, making it 350.

But, of course, we have the usual muddle about coalitions v C&S v vote by vote v minority and the “over my dead body will I deal with them” factors and Queens Speech v confidence vote etc etc

It all points to an extremely muddled picture after May 9th.

But I think it will be a small miracle if Cameron and the Tories survive in Number Ten and I hope to God we don’t help them to do so. I don’t think we will – I just don’t see a policy consensus with us which the Tory right would support. And it’s not an emergency this time.

I’m off to deliver leaflets in a target constituency.

Apologies for any maths errors above. It’s early on a Sunday morning. But the fact that we are having to check the minutiae of Northern Ireland seat numbers underlines how close this is.


One thought on “Peter Kellner's latest projection gives hope to the Lib Dems but points to the squeakiest of squeaky bum times

  1. I think a Tory block of 290+ might just do the Canadian Tory thing of daring anyone to tempt another election and to do that when it suits them most.

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