Pollsters: Kerry cock-up won't have much impact on elections

Reuters are reporting that “Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the Iraq war riled fellow Democrats and temporarily energized Republicans, but it is unlikely to have much, if any, impact in Tuesday’s congressional elections.” They go on:

While a Republican backlash against Kerry could help determine the outcome of a few razor-close congressional races, it’s highly unlikely to change enough votes to determine the battle for control of Congress, analysts said.
“The impact will be very, very minimal,” said Stuart Rothenberg of the
nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “This election is not about John Kerry.
It is about George Bush and the war in Iraq.”

Rothenberg said he doubted the flap would cost Democrats a seat in the Senate, though it could have an effect on a few tight House races.

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Pollsters: Kerry cock-up won’t have much impact on elections

Reuters are reporting that “Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the Iraq war riled fellow Democrats and temporarily energized Republicans, but it is unlikely to have much, if any, impact in Tuesday’s congressional elections.” They go on:

While a Republican backlash against Kerry could help determine the outcome of a few razor-close congressional races, it’s highly unlikely to change enough votes to determine the battle for control of Congress, analysts said.
“The impact will be very, very minimal,” said Stuart Rothenberg of the
nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “This election is not about John Kerry.
It is about George Bush and the war in Iraq.”

Rothenberg said he doubted the flap would cost Democrats a seat in the Senate, though it could have an effect on a few tight House races.

US Democrats' election prospects: It can't be this good!

The US blogosphere is buzzing with good news for the Democrats in the run-up to next Tuesday’s congress elections. But my feeling is: It can’t be this good!

A remarkably frank “Republican strategist” on Channel 4 news last night, who freely admitted Bush’s unpopularity, predicted Democrat control of the House with a 3-4 seat majority and Republicans keeping control of the Senate by hanging on in Montana, Missouri and Tennessee.

If the Democrats manage just that, plus a clutch of gubernatorial wins, then at least we have got to the end of a dark, Bushy tunnel!

However, if we suspend our natural caution for a moment and enjoy some of the things streaming in from the polls very recently, they are incredibly good for the Democrats:

Political Wire reports excerpts from the latest Rothenberg report. It predicts House Democrat gains of 34-40 seats and Senate gains of 5-7 giving the Democrats control of both chambers.

-The latest strategy memo from Stan Greenberg and James Carville says:

It is very hard to look at the most recent Democracy Corps survey in the 50 most competitive Republican-held districts finished last night and not conclude that we are headed toward a 1994 election — with the Democratic majority approaching that of the Gingrich Congress. The named Democratic vote for Congress has moved up from a 3-point lead to 7-point margin since Sunday, with the named Democrat for the first time moving over 50 percent (51 to 44 percent). For the first time, the Democratic candidate is ahead on average in the bottom tier of least competitive races.

-My US psephological hero, Ruy Teixeira, has handed down his third Election update. He reckons that the favourable polling amongst independents for the Democrats will swamp any Rove get-out-the-vote “magic” (which he demolishes in importance anyway):

National polls continue to confirm a very wide lead for Democrats among independent voters. For example, the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showed the Democrats running an amazing 28 point lead among independents, a finding that was discussed at length in the Post story on the poll. As I have continually stressed–and the mainstream press is now starting to pick up on–the Roveian fire-up-the-base-and-screw-the-middle strategy only works mathematically if losses in the political center can be minimized. Now they can’t and the GOP is likely to pay the price–and very probably not just in this election.

Teixeira also reports excellent polling for the Democrats amongst many groupings:

Let me also draw your attention to a very interesting study released by the Pew Research Center that, among other things, compares a wide range of demographic groups’ current voting intentions to their voting intentions at this point in the 2002 campaign. If you read one poll in detail this election cycle, let it be this one. The Pew data show huge swings toward the Democrats among many important voter groups including seniors, middle income voters, non-college educated voters, whites, rural residents, married moms, white Catholics–the list goes on and on. In effect, these shifts have turned yesterday’s swing voters into Democratic groups and many of yesterday’s Republican groups into swing voters.

US Democrats’ election prospects: It can’t be this good!

The US blogosphere is buzzing with good news for the Democrats in the run-up to next Tuesday’s congress elections. But my feeling is: It can’t be this good!

A remarkably frank “Republican strategist” on Channel 4 news last night, who freely admitted Bush’s unpopularity, predicted Democrat control of the House with a 3-4 seat majority and Republicans keeping control of the Senate by hanging on in Montana, Missouri and Tennessee.

If the Democrats manage just that, plus a clutch of gubernatorial wins, then at least we have got to the end of a dark, Bushy tunnel!

However, if we suspend our natural caution for a moment and enjoy some of the things streaming in from the polls very recently, they are incredibly good for the Democrats:

Political Wire reports excerpts from the latest Rothenberg report. It predicts House Democrat gains of 34-40 seats and Senate gains of 5-7 giving the Democrats control of both chambers.

-The latest strategy memo from Stan Greenberg and James Carville says:

It is very hard to look at the most recent Democracy Corps survey in the 50 most competitive Republican-held districts finished last night and not conclude that we are headed toward a 1994 election — with the Democratic majority approaching that of the Gingrich Congress. The named Democratic vote for Congress has moved up from a 3-point lead to 7-point margin since Sunday, with the named Democrat for the first time moving over 50 percent (51 to 44 percent). For the first time, the Democratic candidate is ahead on average in the bottom tier of least competitive races.

-My US psephological hero, Ruy Teixeira, has handed down his third Election update. He reckons that the favourable polling amongst independents for the Democrats will swamp any Rove get-out-the-vote “magic” (which he demolishes in importance anyway):

National polls continue to confirm a very wide lead for Democrats among independent voters. For example, the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showed the Democrats running an amazing 28 point lead among independents, a finding that was discussed at length in the Post story on the poll. As I have continually stressed–and the mainstream press is now starting to pick up on–the Roveian fire-up-the-base-and-screw-the-middle strategy only works mathematically if losses in the political center can be minimized. Now they can’t and the GOP is likely to pay the price–and very probably not just in this election.

Teixeira also reports excellent polling for the Democrats amongst many groupings:

Let me also draw your attention to a very interesting study released by the Pew Research Center that, among other things, compares a wide range of demographic groups’ current voting intentions to their voting intentions at this point in the 2002 campaign. If you read one poll in detail this election cycle, let it be this one. The Pew data show huge swings toward the Democrats among many important voter groups including seniors, middle income voters, non-college educated voters, whites, rural residents, married moms, white Catholics–the list goes on and on. In effect, these shifts have turned yesterday’s swing voters into Democratic groups and many of yesterday’s Republican groups into swing voters.

Man who "talks to Bush or advisers every Monday" allegedly orders his crystal meths

It is very sad when someone is embroiled in a scandal, mainly of their own making. I feel great sympathy for Pastor Ted Haggard, and more especially for his family. But you have to ask how anyone could be so stupid.

Ted Haggard is the accepted leading voice of 30 million Evangelicals in the US. Wikipedia says:

Author Jeff Sharlet reports that Haggard “talks to… Bush or his advisers every Monday” and opines that “no pastor in America holds more sway over the political direction of evangelicalism.”[12] In a June 2005 Wall Street Journal article, “Ted Haggard, the head of the 30-million strong National Association of Evangelicals, jokes that the only disagreement between himself and the leader of the Western world is automotive: Mr. Bush drives a Ford pickup, whereas he prefers a Chevy.”[13]

Now, it is alleged that he said this on the phone, referring to an order for crystal meths:

“Hi Mike, this is Art. Hey, I was just calling to see if we could get any more. Either $100 or $200 supply. And I could pick it up really anytime I could get it tomorrow or we could wait till next week sometime and so I also wanted to get your address. “

Katherine Harris to get hammered at the polls? Sob. Sob

It would be indecent for me to show any glee in reporting that it looks as though Katherine Harris will get well and truly stuffed in her bid for the US Senate.

Or, as the BBC puts it more reservedly: “Recount Unlikely”.

Forever engraved on my brain, will be the image of Harris announcing in 2000, with all due pomp and ceremony that, surprise, surprise (as she was both Co-Chair of Bush’s Florida election campaign and the person responsible for purging the Florida electoral rolls of anyone remotely likely to vote for Gore) Bush was to receive Florida’s electoral college votes and therefore become President.

I take no pleasure now (he lies) that she is going to get hammered at the polls, having spent a fortune of her own money and been more or less disowned by Jeb Bush and many Republicans.

I repeat, I take no pleasure whatsoever now in reporting that she is going to get absolutely hammered at the polls.

Pollsters: Kerry cock-up won't have much impact on elections

Reuters are reporting that “Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the Iraq war riled fellow Democrats and temporarily energized Republicans, but it is unlikely to have much, if any, impact in Tuesday’s congressional elections.” They go on:

While a Republican backlash against Kerry could help determine the outcome of a few razor-close congressional races, it’s highly unlikely to change enough votes to determine the battle for control of Congress, analysts said.
“The impact will be very, very minimal,” said Stuart Rothenberg of the
nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “This election is not about John Kerry.
It is about George Bush and the war in Iraq.”

Rothenberg said he doubted the flap would cost Democrats a seat in the Senate, though it could have an effect on a few tight House races.